Apple's iTunes will gladly sell you video downloads. And others like Amazon.com and Wal-Mart would like that opportunity too. In fact, many technology and media companies are building models premised on the notion that you and I will pay to see the video we want to see.


But sometimes video just wants to be free.

Forbes magazine quotes Forrester analyst James McQuivey saying "that the business will never take off in a significant way. He predicts that U.S. consumers will spend $279 million on online video - excluding porn - in 2007. That's a big leap from $98 million in 2006, but it's also the peak for the industry, he says. Instead, the majority of online video will use the same method that television does to pay for itself--advertising."

Readers of this blog know that this is a theme that I agree with.

Only 9% of adults who use the Internet have ever paid for Internet video, according to McQuivey. "The paid video download market in its current evolutionary state will go the way of the dodo," he says. "Advertising has been and will remain the most lucrative way to get people to 'pay' to watch TV shows."

What's stopping people from forking over their credit card numbers for video? First, there's the difficulty with getting Web video onto television screens--most people don't want to buy a pricey piece of gadgetry to do the job, McQuivey says.

There is also a catalog problem--there's not enough good stuff to choose from because content companies and movie studios are slow to unleash new releases on the Internet. Finally, with so many restrictions on viewing rights--such as the number of devices and times videos can be played back--online video isn't worth its price, he says.